Big banks will kick off earnings season next week with JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley expected to report results. Goldman Sachs will report its results in the following week. Investors will pay close attention to how a sharp decline in IPOs and dealmaking hit their bottom lines.
With stock prices sinking and inflation and interest rates rising, it has been more difficult for companies to sell stock, leaving banks with a dearth of underwriting business. Companies listing shares in the U.S through IPOs have raised just $4.8 billion so far this year, compared to $84 billion at this point last year. Global IPO volume fell 46% with proceeds down 58% in the first half of the year according to EY.
Last year, global merger and acquisition volumes had approached $6 trillion, including a record $1.56 trillion in the third quarter, according to Dealogic. This year, the deals have dried up with investment banking revenues falling 36% at Goldman Sachs during the first quarter, and tumbling 37% at Morgan Stanley. Citigroup has said it expects a 50% drop in investment banking revenue for the second quarter.
Shares of JPMorgan (JPM) are down over 30% so far this year, while shares of Citigroup (C) are down 27%. Morgan Stanley’s (MS) stock price is down about 25%. Goldman Sachs (GS) shares are down about 26%.
“Bank stocks typically do well when interest rates are rising, but with fears of a recession growing by the day and less activity in the capital markets, bank stocks are underperforming the broader market and are likely to remain under pressure through the summer,” said Caleb Silver, Editor-in-Chief of Investopedia.